This week, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been up to 10% loss. Although it might scare day traders, the 3-day chart shows that the bearish move barely nicked the current market structure.
The decline takes on a different meaning considering that the $12,500 level has been untouched for more than 13 months. Currently, analysts are forecasting price targets at $16,000, partly due to a gap in the CME and expectations of an increase in inflation in the US.
The graph above illustrates how negative performance over the last ten days is insignificant in a broader perspective. Since the beginning of the year to date, Bitcoin has accumulated a gain of 48%, and shows no signs of weakness. The largest daily decline in the last five months was -6.4% on August 2.
Investors seem to ignore the recent volatility
While short-term traders are wondering whether it was the August 28th expiration of futures and options on the CME that caused the decline in recent days, the on-chain data reveals that investors are more imperturbable than ever.
63% of UTXOs have not been touched for more than a year, an unprecedented scenario. These hodlers faced a 53% decline during the thirty days before March 13, but not even the collapse of Black Thursday convinced them to move their BTCs.
Option markets show few signs of tension
Option markets offer a real-time overview of the sentiment of large Etoro traders and trading desks involved in arbitrage activities. The 25% delta skew is the main ‚fear and greed‘ indicator for these markets, as it measures how expensive protection against a negative price movement compared to a positive one is.
These put options, which give buyers the opportunity to sell Bitcoin at a fixed price at a later date, are currently 6% more expensive than a similar call option. Even if the instrument does not present the same level of optimism generated by the 13% difference observed a few weeks ago, the 25% delta skew indicator can still be interpreted as bullish.