BITCOIN KIJKT NAAR COVID-19 VACCIN ALS ZIJN VOLGENDE POTENTIËLE BULLISH NARRATIEF.

Een COVID-19 vaccin lijkt slecht nieuws voor Bitcoin totdat het dat niet meer doet.

De komst van de nieuwe coronaviruspandemie was aanvankelijk erger voor elke markt, inclusief cryptocurrency. De BTC/USD-wisselkoers daalde in maart 2020 in slechts twee dagen tijd met meer dan 60 procent, een daling die samenviel met een crash op de wereldwijde financiële markt.

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Later hebben de centrale banken gereageerd door hun benchmarkkrediettarieven te verlagen, in combinatie met programma’s die eindeloos veel overheids- en bedrijfsschulden hebben aangekocht. De pseudo-kwantitatieve versoepeling, gevolgd door het besluit van de regeringen om triljoenen dollars te besteden aan hun sociale voorzieningen, verminderde de koopkracht van de Amerikaanse dollar.

De daling van de greenback en de negatief renderende schulden zetten beleggers aan tot het zoeken naar winst in schaarser wordende activa, wat leidde tot een massief herstel van de Bitcoin-markt. Tussen maart en nu steeg de cryptocrisis met meer dan 350 procent, waarbij voor het eerst sinds december 2017 19.000 dollar werd bereikt.

Bitcoin raakte dinsdag een nieuwe jaarlijkse high op het gebied van toenemende safe-haven aantrekkingskracht. Bron: BTCUSD op TradingView.com

Maar de vooruitzichten voor het wereldwijde economische herstel zijn aan het verbeteren. De laatste twee weken kwamen drie farmaceutische bedrijven met hun respectievelijke vaccins op de proppen, die elk minstens 90 procent werkzaamheid tegen COVID-19 claimden. Het nieuws stuurde goud, de grootste concurrent van Bitcoin, twee weken op rij naar beneden.

Verrassend genoeg kwam Bitcoin zelf niet lager uit, geholpen door haar bloeiende adoptie onder de reguliere financiële instellingen (lees PayPal). De wens van de markt om $20.000 opnieuw te testen, Bitcoin’s recordhoogte tot nu toe, hield speculatieve bullish weddenschappen hoger in zowel de spot als de derivatenbazaars.

VACCIN BEWEERT DAT DE INFLATIE

De laatste Bitcoin-investeerders, waaronder financiële veteranen als Paul Tudor Jones en Stan Druckenmiller, geven toe dat ze al lang in de cryptokringen zitten vanwege het vermogen om hun portefeuilles te beschermen tegen de risico’s van de devaluatie van de dollar en de hogere inflatie.

MicroStrategy, een op de Nasdaq-website genoteerde onderneming die haar 425 miljoen dollar aan kasreserves heeft vervangen door Bitcoin, gelooft hetzelfde.

Het is omdat een COVID-19-vaccin niet belooft het beleid om te keren dat er tot nu toe een inhaalvraag naar Bitcoin is. De Fed Funds Futures Curve anticipeert op de volgende renteverhoging in 2023. Ondertussen laat de Amerikaanse Tips 10-Year Inflation Breakeven Rate een continue opwaartse trend zien, wat suggereert dat de markt wacht op een hogere inflatie.

Kortom, de schade aan de economie tijdens de lockdown periode zal meer tijd nodig hebben om te genezen. Een vaccin versnelt alleen het herstel, maar heeft ook de neiging om de inflatie te verhogen als mensen terugkeren naar hun pre-pandemische leven.

Zo stond de prijsindex voor persoonlijke consumptieve bestedingen, een barometer die de Federal Reserve gebruikt om het inflatieniveau te meten, in oktober 2020 op 1,4 procent. Economen voorspellen een stijging tot 1,7 procent tegen eind november 2020.

Ondertussen ziet Ellen Zentner, de belangrijkste Amerikaanse econoom bij Morgan Stanley, de inflatie tegen eind 2022 oplopen tot 2 procent. Tegelijkertijd stelt Joel Prakken, de belangrijkste Amerikaanse econoom bij IHS Markit, voor dat de olieprijzen zouden stijgen en de dollar verder zou verzwakken te midden van het economisch herstel. Het zal ook de inflatie opdrijven.

Al met al brengen de genoemde voorspellingen Bitcoin in een assertief bullish ruimte voor de komende jaren. Een vaccin leidt alleen maar tot inflatie, waardoor meer instellingen/investeerders hun geld kunnen inruilen voor de cryptocrisis.

SheeldMarket labeled prime broker by the AMF and supported by Tim Draper

SheeldMarket is a French startup that aggregates marketplaces on a single platform.

The company recently obtained the registration of its activity with the AMF.

Tim Draper financially supports the French project via Draper Dragon.

SheeldMarket is a French startup that aggregates marketplaces on a single platform. The company recently obtained the registration of its activity with the AMF.

SheeldMarket was accelerated at UC Berkeley, before joining the Agoranov incubator in Paris. In May 2020, the company raised € 1 million from French (Kima Ventures, Axeleo) and American (Draper Dragon) funds. In June, SheelMarket launched a trial phase with an American fund to validate its technology.

What needs does SheelMarket meet?

The cryptocurrency market is fragmented and not ready to welcome institutional investors. Indeed, there are currently more than 50 marketplaces on which to buy and sell cryptocurrencies. Each has its price, its account opening process, and above all an obligation to fund this account in full before being able to place orders. In order to get the best price and be sure to process your entire position, you should therefore be connected to all platforms at the same time, which represents a considerable cost and workload for an investment fund.

SheelMarket has developed cash management algorithms and process, customers can get the best market prices with just one click. In addition, customers‘ buying and selling intentions are blindly linked in an encrypted dark pool before being transmitted.

Registration with the AMF

Since the end of October, SheeldMarket has been registered with the AMF as a Service Provider on Digital Assets (PSAN) for the custody of digital assets and the purchase / sale of digital assets. Famous investor and billionaire Tim Draper seems to be enjoying the news on Twitter.

Exchange becomes fourth structure after Coinhouse , StackinSat, and LGO Exchange to be registered as a PSAN

Oliver Yates, President of SheeldMarket, said:

This registration represents an important milestone for our company and the crypto ecosystem in Europe, as there is currently no similar solution that complies with regulations for European investors.

Why shouldn’t a 30% drop in Bitcoin’s price be a surprise?

Bitcoin’s price faces the last major hurdle at $16,000 before a possible race to new all-time highs, but a 30% correction is also possible.

The Bitcoin (BTC) price rally came to a halt as Joe Biden was announced as the winner of the 2020 presidential election over the weekend, falling from $15,500 to $14,400.

However, Bitcoin continues to show strength as it once again faces the final resistance zone at $16,000.

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This final endurance zone is the last major hurdle before a potential race to a new all-time high. However, it is increasingly likely that a reversal will occur with the index of fear and greed currently at the same levels as the peak in the summer of 2019.

The weekly level at $16,000 is likely to be a strong resistance

Weekly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Source: TradingView
The weekly Bitcoin graph shows the $16,000 resistance zone as the final resistance zone before a new historical high can be tested.

The weekly chart also shows support levels if the Bitcoin price begins to correct. A correction would be relatively healthy if you change the previous resistance levels to become a new support.

The creator of the Stock-to-Flow model claims that Bitcoin will reach USD 100,000 by December 2021
If a correction occurs, the weekly level of around $11,600-12,000 should be considered as a possible support zone. Such a correction would mean a drop of about 30% in the Bitcoin price. A 30% correction is quite normal, as this happened a few times during the previous bullish cycle in 2017.

The ‚Extreme Greed‘ index is similar to the summer of 2019
The Crypto Fear & Greed index is a useful indicator for measuring current market sentiment. In extremely negative periods, the index uses the colour red to mark the overall sentiment.

However, once the general market sentiment reaches the maximum upward phases, including euphoria, the number approaches the maximum value of 100. The current number is 90, or „extreme greed“. This level has only been seen once in the history of this indicator, which was on 27 June 2019.

That date was the actual high for the year, as the price of Bitcoin reached $13,700 and has been corrected by 50% since then.

Multiple indicators and areas therefore identify possible resistance zones, suggesting that a correction should not come as a surprise.

Bitcoin dominance continues its fourth quarter rally

Weekly graph of the Bitcoin domain. Source: TradingView
The Bitcoin domain continues its ascent as it always does in the fourth quarter of the year.

Historically, the Bitcoin domain peaks in December, after which the first quarter of the year is an excellent time for altcoins.

Based on this historical fact, it’s still time to be cautious with the altcoins despite the slight upturn in relief in recent days. If Bitcoin decides to consolidate towards the $11,600-12,000 area, there’s almost no chance of altcoins increasing in the opposite direction of BTC.

In that light, Bitcoin has to establish a limited range construction that gives the altcoins some room to catch up.

What’s next for the price of Bitcoin?

Weekly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Source: TradingView
A very likely scenario would be a corrective period after this wave of momentum. Such a recovery period would mean stabilisation and a natural build-up of markets, rather than a continuous parabolic movement.

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In that perspective, a massive drop in a candle, which would be quickly bought, is not unlikely. After that, the ideal scenario for the bullish would be the continuation of range and sideways resulting in compression and a build up to a strong upward breakout.

The best period to anticipate a possible upward movement for altcoins would be when Bitcoin has finished correcting. Historically, the best period to enter the altcoin market is December and January, so traders should be on the lookout for a possible BTC retracement in the coming weeks in case history repeats itself.

Bitcoin em níveis de extrema ganância não vistos desde o Rally de junho de 2019

O Bitcoin Fear and Green Index exibe níveis de „ganância extrema“ não vistos em mais de um ano quando o BTC subiu para $16.000. O que ele sugere?

O Bitcoin tem aproveitado as últimas semanas com aumentos de preços impressionantes, registrando novos máximos anuais. Como seu preço chegou a $16.000 horas atrás, a comunidade se tornou excessivamente otimista, de acordo com uma métrica popular chamada índice Fear & Greed. Entretanto, a história mostra que cenários similares podem levar a quedas acentuadas de preços.

A ganância extrema se apodera do BTC
É seguro dizer que a Bitcoin entrou em um mercado de touros após ganhar mais de US$ 5.000 em cerca de um mês. Além de pintar sua etiqueta de preço mais alto desde janeiro de 2018, a principal moeda criptográfica também expandiu significativamente seu domínio sobre as moedas alternativas.

Como normalmente acontece, a comunidade de moedas criptográficas tem seguido e aplaudido o impressionante desempenho de preços da BTC. O popular apresentador de TV Max Keiser previu $28.000 por moeda, enquanto o CEO da Digital Galaxy Mike Novogratz disse que a Bitcoin acaba de entrar em seu „grande mercado de touro“.

O índice Medo e Ganância também apóia a narrativa positiva. O popular recurso de monitoramento calcula vários tipos de dados, incluindo volume, pesquisas, mídia social e volatilidade, e fornece os sentimentos gerais dos investidores em relação ao atual panorama do mercado de Bitcoin.

O resultado final pode variar de 0 (medo extremo) a 100 (ganância extrema). Como o gráfico abaixo demonstra, o índice está situado no fundo do campo „ganância extrema“ com uma pontuação de 90.

Dados históricos do Índice de Medo e Ganância. Fonte: Eu alternativo

Dados históricos do Fear And Greed Index. Fonte: Eu alternativo
Além disso, a „Bitcoin euphoria (positividade) métrica“ da empresa de análise Santiment indica que as velas de sentimento social ponderado de 2 horas atingiram recentemente também uma alta de 12 meses. A empresa disse que quando a BTC subiu mais de 14.000 dólares há alguns dias, o „sentimento geral nas plataformas sociais disparou“.

Bitcoin Euphoria Metric On Social Media. Fonte: BTC: Santiment
Pode a ganância ser ruim?
Embora Gordon Gekko tenha pregado no clássico filme Wall Street de 1987 que „a ganância é boa, a ganância é certa, a ganância funciona“, isso pode não ser o caso do índice F&G e do sentimento extremamente positivo, pelo menos de acordo com a história.

A última vez que o índice mostrou um número tão „ganância extrema“ de 90 ou acima foi em junho de 2019. Ele veio depois de outra perna impressionante que resultou na alta anual da BTC de US$ 13.900.

No entanto, o que se seguiu foi completamente o oposto do que a comunidade esperava. Nas semanas seguintes, a BTC não conseguiu manter seu nível e, depois de um forte mergulho de nariz afundado abaixo de 10.000 dólares.

Como tal, vale a pena notar que o índice F&G não é um indicador de preço adequado. Pelo contrário, pode significar uma possível inversão de tendência.